Friday, July 14, 2006

Krivsky's Head

PlayerAge**ABAvgOBPSlgISOOPSRARP (Pos. Rank)*
Austin Kearns26325.274.351.492.218.84316.1 (5)
Felipe Lopez26343.268.355.394.126.74915.8 (7)

*Runs Above Replacement Level. As the moniker suggests, this is the number of runs a player has created compared to a replacement player. League rank is the NL rank at the player’s position.
** as of 12/31/06

Would you trade these two position players for these two pitchers?

PlayerAgeGIPERAK/9BB/9HR/9K/BBWXRL (Lg. Rnk.)*
Gary Majewski264655.13.585.534.070.651.36.021 (123)
Bill Bray231923.03.916.263.520.781.78.398 (59)

*Wins Expected Above Replacement Level. This stat uses WPA to weigh how relievers perform. I personally like it, because I think WPA best applies to relief pitchers. But that’s a column for another day (and probably best left to someone more math savvy). Once again, it’s with the player’s NL rank.

And this hitter?

PlayerAgeABAvgOBPSlgISOOPSRARP (Pos. Rank)
Royce Clayton36305.269.315.348.079.6636.6 (12)

I just don’t understand how this move helps Cincy this year. First and foremost, it leaves a gaping hole at shortstop. Who is going to start now, Juan Castro? Royce Clayton? Neither is particularly swift with the glove, and they both heavily burden an NL lineup. It’s almost like having two pitchers at the end of your lineup.

Furthermore, this move increases the Reds dependence on Scott Hatteberg (.309/.411/.486). All of those averages represent career highs, so at 36 years of age, regression seems imminent. Likewise, this will keep the pressure on Brandon Phillips (.306/.357/.438) to keep up his breakout ways.

The move was obviously consummated because of Cincy’s bullpen needs. But why give up so much value to get two bland relievers? They both don’t have overly impressive strikeout numbers, and both walk WAAAAAAY too many batters. And you know what eventually kills relievers? Walking guys.

If anything good can be said about the duo, it’s that they keep the ball in the park. Oh, wait a second; they’re moving from uber-pitching-friendly RFK Stadium to the Bomb City known as the Great American Ballpark.

A few other players swapped, though none seems like they’ll make much of an impact. Brendan Harris’s minor league stats look impressive at first (.283/.379/.416) for a second baseman, until you realize he’ll be 26 next month.

I don’t want to say that Reds GM Wayne Krivsky threw away the season with this trade, but…

If anything good comes of this, it’s that it paves the way for the exit of Soriano and/or Guillen. Though, a little bird told me that Soriano may be Anaheim-bound.