Monday, April 10, 2006

Win Expectancy



I'm totally riffing off Jeff over at Lookout Landing, but I think this whole Win Probability thing is highly interesting. I'll add a link in the sidebar in the coming days, but for now, you can find an explantion of WP over at The Hardball Times.

Basically, the chart above charts the Yankees probability of winning at any given point in the game. Additionally, there are WP values assigned to each player for their contribution to the win, which you can find by clicking the [MORE] button.

[MORE]Hitters
d
PlayerWP
Posada0.198
A-Rod0.084
Matsui0.061
Giambi0.042
Jeter0.042
Cano0.023
Phillips0.000
Williams0.000
Crosby-0.001
Cairo-0.010
Damon-0.015
Sheffield-0.037


So Jorge accounted for roughly 20 percent of Sunday’s win, even though he drove in half the runs.

Pitchers
PitcherWP
Mussina0.100
Proctor0.001
Farnsworth0.001
Rivera0.000


I’m going to keep a running total of each player’s WP throughout the year (adding to my self-induced workload of keeping raw statistics for each player in the majors this year), as well as posting the WP chart following each game.

This will be much more in-depth once I get into the groove of posting it and I become more familiar with the inner workings of the stat. Win Expectancy, people: it’s how you win games.